Economic observers foretell another recession.

Ec--comical----Choose-btn-Inflation-or-recession----via-ZH-- The Federal Reserve's dilemma.

In recent days, observers have begun to opine that another economic recession is imminent. 

     For example, Elon Musk not only claimed that a recession draws near, but, ominously, thinks that it will likely be protracted, lasting until the Spring of 2024. Musk offered very little rationale to support his conclusion because his remark was but a tweet.

     Famed economist Nouriel Roubini then added his two cents.

      In the same vein, economist Ryan McMacken first claimed that the US economy is already in a recession, but then seemed to foretell a worsening of that recession. He noted the inversion of a particular yield curve, the curve that relates to the three-month U.S. Treasury bill ("T-bill") and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. This is not "the" yield curve that most economists talk about, which is the relationship of the two-year T-bill yield and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which could be called "the two's-and-ten's yield curve." The Federal Reserve tends to watch "the 10-year/3-month spread" more closely than the "two's-and-ten's" yield curve, wrote McMacken, and even that curve is now pointing to recession.

      ZeroHedge (ZH) also insisted that another recession is imminent. ZH's reasoning is similar to McMacken's, except that it delves into greater detail as to why the Fed watches the "10-year/3-month" yield curve more closely than the "two's-and-ten's" yield curve.

     Michael "Doom porn" Snyder reached a similar conclusion, but for completely different reasons than McMacken and ZH.

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Monday, 22 July 2024