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Fuel price inflation -- Why fuel prices are likely to rise sharply before March, 2023.

In recent days, the petroleum-watching commentariat has opined that oil prices are likely to increase sharply soon due to the recent decline in inventories of petroleum distillates, including diesel fuel. These commentators have expressed their opinions on Twitter and other Internet forums.
First, I enumerate the Twitter commentators:

A couple of authors have expressed similar sentiments on SeekingAlpha:
  • HFI Research foretells higher oil prices this winter due to several factors, including a shortage of oil distillates, reduced oil refining capacity in the USA, a reduction in oil shipments from OPEC+, and the Federal government's stopping its releases of oil from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
  • The SeekingAlpha editorial staff has added additional, relevant data.

ZeroHedge (ZH) stated that we should "[f]orget [about] Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories."  ZH enumerated several factors that account for the shortage of distillates, including perhaps the "most important of all  [ such factors, that ]  the US   .  .  .    has lower  [ oil ]  refining capacity than before, reducing its capacity to make fuels."

Relatedly, Statista relayed the expectation of the EIA (Energy Information Agency of the Federal government) that a "colder-than-average winter . . . and high energy prices will quite significantly raise heating costs for many U.S. consumers this winter".


In USA, the inventory of oil distillates approaches a record low just before winter. Oct. 2022.
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Monday, 27 March 2023